Thailand Politics – Love is all around
We see signs of a national government in the making after next year’s election. In our view, this is a win-win scenario for the military-backed political camp to secure a third term in office and for the Pheu Thai Party to return to government after nine years of absence.
Military in for a third term
Thailand will have a general election no later than May 2023. We expect two scenarios for the new government. The first is for the current coalition parties, including the military-backed Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), to win more than half of the lower House seats and regroup to become the next government. The second is for the current main opposition Pheu Thai Party (PT), which is the most popular party in most opinion polls, to win nearly half of House seats and bring in military-backed parties to join its coalition. Both scenarios imply that the military is going to secure its third term in office.
A national government in the making
We see clear signs of a PT-PPRP partnership to form the next government. First, PT has a clear stance not to seek changes to the Thai political system and constitutional monarchy. These are the areas where the military strongly opposes any changes. Second, PT has hinted many times that it can work with the PPRP and its party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon. Third, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha is to help make the PPRP-PT scenario possible by letting Gen Prawit become the PPRP’s PM candidate as PT can’t accept Gen Prayut as PM again. Lastly, PT has distanced itself from the Move Forward Party (MFP), another opposition party that has pushed for changes in the political system. The PPRP is strongly against having MFP in its coalition.
A make, not a break
Given the PPRP’s waning popularity, a change of plan is needed for it to be part of a third term. We believe there have been attempts to find a fresh-faced, high-profile figure to replace Gen Prayut as a PM candidate to shore up the PPRP’s popularity, but to no avail. We think this led to Plan B of a national government PT-PPRP partnership. And to still make use of the residual popularity of PM Prayut to help boost the military-backed camp’s negotiating power, he is likely to join a new party called United Thai Nation (UTN), which is also in the military-backed camp, as a PM candidate to gain some party-list seats. UTN also has many strong election candidates in the South.
Election no later than May 2023
In all scenarios, an election will be held no later than May 2023. If the government stays till the end of its term on 23 March 2023, one must be held within 45 days, or by 7 May 2023 at the latest. An election candidate must be a member of a political party for at least 90 days. But if the PM dissolves the House before the government’s term ends, an election has to be held within 45-60 days from the dissolution, or by 22 May 2023 at the latest. It could be earlier as the PM can dissolve the House any day now. With a House dissolution, an election candidate must be a party member for at least 30 days. A House dissolution would allow candidates to switch parties more easily.
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